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  • 曹衛華, 杜楠, 安劍奇, 吳敏. 基于主客觀證據融合的高爐懸料預測方法[J]. 工程科學學報, 2014, 36(4): 506-514. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.04.013
    引用本文: 曹衛華, 杜楠, 安劍奇, 吳敏. 基于主客觀證據融合的高爐懸料預測方法[J]. 工程科學學報, 2014, 36(4): 506-514. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.04.013
    CAO Wei-hua, DU Nan, AN Jian-qi, WU Min. Prediction method of blast furnace hanging based on fusion of subjective and objective evidences[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2014, 36(4): 506-514. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.04.013
    Citation: CAO Wei-hua, DU Nan, AN Jian-qi, WU Min. Prediction method of blast furnace hanging based on fusion of subjective and objective evidences[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2014, 36(4): 506-514. DOI: 10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.04.013

    基于主客觀證據融合的高爐懸料預測方法

    Prediction method of blast furnace hanging based on fusion of subjective and objective evidences

    • 摘要: 針對高爐關鍵異常爐況懸料難以預測的問題,基于D-S證據理論,提出一種綜合模糊專家推理和后驗概率最小二乘支持向量機的懸料預測方法.首先,結合高爐生產過程和懸料現象,分析懸料形成的內在機理;其次,通過模糊專家推理提取基于專家規則的主觀證據,再通過建立后驗概率最小二乘支持向量機模型提取基于數據內在客觀規律的客觀證據;最后,基于D-S證據理論完成主客觀證據融合,實現懸料預測.該方法充分利用專家經驗和最小二乘支持向量機的自學習能力,能夠提高預測精度.仿真結果表明本文提出的方法有效、準確.

       

      Abstract: Aiming at the difficulty of predicting blast furnace hanging, a prediction method was proposed for the hanging based on the D-S evidence theory and in combination with fuzzy expert inference and a posterior probability least squares support vector machine. Firstly, the causes of hanging are obtained by mechanism analysis in consideration of blast furnace operations and hanging phenomena. Secondly, subjective evidences are extracted by fuzzy expert reasoning, while a posterior probability least squares support vector machine model is developed to extract objective evidences. Finally, in order to predict the hanging precisely, the subjective and objective evidences are fused based on the D-S evidence theory, which makes full use of the expertise and the self-learning ability of the least squares support vector machine. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed method can make accurate prediction of the hanging.

       

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