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  • 基于TCN-LSTM-AAE和DPGMM的新型電力系統運行模式分析

    Operating Modes Analysis for New Power Systems Based on TCN-LSTM-AAE and DPGMM

    • 摘要: 可再生能源滲透率的不斷增加正深刻改變電力系統的運行機理,使其呈現出更強的復雜性、非線性與動態特征。這一趨勢標志著電力系統正加速向新型電力系統演進。傳統以潮流方程和經驗規則為基礎的運行方式分析手段在這一背景下已難以勝任。針對高可再生能源滲透下運行狀態頻繁演化的挑戰,本文提出了一種數據驅動的新型電力系統運行模式分析框架。該框架包括面向不同分布數據的離群點檢測與缺失值填補、構建基于時序卷積與長短期記憶網絡的對抗自編碼器用于歷史數據擴充、結合特征提取的狄利克雷過程高斯混合模型實現運行模式數量的自適應識別,以及運行模式的降維可視化展示。基于中國華北地區某市電力系統的實際運行數據開展的實驗驗證表明,該方法在復雜運行環境中表現出良好的識別效果。研究結果進一步揭示,隨著可再生能源滲透率的提升,系統運行方式的數量和離散程度顯著增加,動態行為呈現出更強的非線性演化趨勢與不確定性,運行模式頻繁躍遷,亟需引入更具智能性與靈活性的調控策略以保障系統的穩定與高效運行。

       

      Abstract: With the rapid integration of renewable energy and the continuous expansion of its installed capacity, the operational mechanisms of modern power systems are undergoing profound and fundamental transformations. These developments have introduced greater variability and volatility into system behavior, causing operational states to become increasingly complex, nonlinear, and dynamic. Consequently, conventional operating mode identification approaches, which are predominantly based on empirical rules and static system assumptions, are proving inadequate in capturing the evolving pattens of new power system, especially under high levels of uncertainty and renewable penetration. To address the increasingly prominent challenges in the new power system, this paper proposes a systematic and data-driven framework for identifying and analyzing operating modes. The framework begins with a data preprocessing phase that fully accounts for the characteristics of multi-source data. Targeted strategies for outlier detection and missing value imputation are applied based on the statistical distribution of different variables, which ensures the integrity, consistency, and reliability of the input data at the source and lays a solid foundation for subsequent modeling and analysis. To compensate for data sparsity and imbalance, which are common under high renewable penetration conditions, the framework incorporates a generative module based on an Adversarial Autoencoder that integrates Temporal Convolutional Networks and Long Short-Term Memory. Through this hybrid architecture, the model can effectively learn the latent properties of the data while generating realistic and diverse augmented samples to address the problems of data imbalance. Additionally, a cosine annealing learning rate schedule is employed during model training to enhance learning stability, prevent convergence to local minima, and improve overall training efficiency and representational quality. To address the issue of high-dimensional data and extract essential latent representations, an Autoencoder is pre-trained to compress the operational data into a low-dimensional feature space. The resulting compact and informative features are then used as input to a Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model, which is employed for clustering and operation mode identification. As a nonparametric Bayesian approach, DPGMM is capable of adaptively inferring the appropriate number of clusters without requiring manual specification. Such adaptive capability greatly enhances the model's flexibility, scalability, and generalization capacity. Furthermore, the framework employs the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection algorithm to perform dimensionality reduction and visualize the distribution of operating modes in a three-dimensional space, thereby enabling more profound insights into the structural evolution of the system’s operational states. The proposed framework is validated using real-world operational data from a power system in a city in North China. Experimental results demonstrate that the method exhibits excellent performance in identifying operation modes under complex and highly dynamic conditions. Specifically, as the penetration level of renewable energy increases, both the number and dispersion of operating modes increase significantly. The number of modes rises from three in low-penetration scenarios to six under medium penetration and up to nine in high-penetration cases. Quantitative analysis further reveals that system dynamics evolve with stronger nonlinearity and increased uncertainty, and that transitions between modes become substantially more random. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional rule-based dispatch strategies and emphasize the urgent need for intelligent, adaptive, and flexible control mechanisms to ensure the safe, stable, and efficient operation of future power systems.

       

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