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  • 電力碳足跡因子對鋼鐵行業產品碳足跡的影響

    Influence of electricity carbon footprint factors on the carbon footprint of iron and steel products

    • 摘要: 鋼鐵工業作為國民經濟的基礎產業,既是能源消耗密集型行業,也是全球碳排放的重要來源. 在應對氣候變化和實現“雙碳”目標的背景下,產品碳足跡逐漸成為國際貿易與供應鏈競爭力的核心指標. 由于單位產品碳足跡較高,我國鋼鐵行業在可持續發展方面面臨嚴峻挑戰. 本文基于生命周期評價(Life cycle assessment, LCA)方法,核算了鋼鐵產業典型的三種粗鋼生產工藝的產品碳足跡,包括長流程(高爐–轉爐)、45%廢鋼比電爐短流程以及全廢鋼電爐短流程. 同時,采用電網排放因子計算方法,對我國區域及省級2018—2022年的年度電力碳足跡因子進行了測算與分析,形成本地化的電力碳足跡因子. 研究結果表明,電力消耗是鋼鐵生產碳排放的重要影響因素,不同工藝路線的電力碳足跡貢獻差異顯著:長流程粗鋼的電力碳排放僅占總碳足跡的約7%,45%廢鋼比電爐短流程占比約20%,而全廢鋼電爐短流程則高達約58%. 本地化的電力碳足跡因子與商業數據庫因子核算碳足跡結果差異較大,全廢鋼電爐短流程差異可達35%. 此外,我國區域及省級電力結構差異明顯,西南地區以水電為主的電力結構使其碳足跡因子低于0.40 kg·kW–1·h–1,而以火電為主的華北和華東地區因子超過1.00 kg·kW–1·h–1,呈現“北高南低、西低東高”的空間格局. 2018—2022年我國區域及省級電力碳足跡因子總體呈下降趨勢,體現清潔能源發電比例提升帶來的減排效果. 敏感性分析結果顯示,電力因子每降低0.1 kg·kW–1·h–1,可使全廢鋼短流程粗鋼產品碳足跡減少約50 ~ 70 kg·t–1,進一步驗證了電力結構優化對行業減排潛力的顯著影響. 本研究通過對電力碳足跡因子與鋼鐵產品碳足跡的系統性量化分析,揭示了中國電力碳足跡因子的空間分布規律及其隨時間變化趨勢,量化了電力碳足跡因子在不同鋼鐵生產工藝中的影響權重,驗證了本地化因子在提高鋼鐵產品碳足跡核算準確性與區域可比性方面的顯著作用. 研究結果可為鋼鐵行業的低碳化轉型、產能空間布局優化以及區域能源結構優化提供數據支撐與方法參考.

       

      Abstract: As a pillar of the national economy, the iron and steel industry is both energy-intensive and a primary source of global carbon emissions. In the context of global climate mitigation and China’s “Dual Carbon” targets, the product carbon footprint (PCF) has emerged as a critical metric determining competitiveness in international trade and supply chains. Given the high carbon intensity per unit of product, the Chinese steel industry faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable development. This study employs life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the PCFs of three typical crude steel production routes: the blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace (BF–BOF) long process, an electric arc furnace (EAF) short process with 45% scrap input, and a full-scrap EAF short process. Furthermore, using the grid emission factor method, this study calculated and analyzed annual electricity carbon footprint factors at regional and provincial levels in China from 2018 to 2022, thereby establishing a localized dataset for electricity carbon intensity. Results indicate that electricity consumption is a critical determinant of carbon emissions in steel manufacturing, with the contribution of electricity-related emissions varying significantly across routes: approximately 7% for BF–BOF, 20% for the 45% scrap EAF, and rising to 58% for the full-scrap EAF. Moreover, significant discrepancies were observed between PCFs calculated using localized electricity factors and those derived from commercial databases such as Ecoinvent. For the full-scrap EAF route, this deviation reached 35%, underscoring the need to use region-specific emission factors for accurate PCF accounting. Additionally, significant spatial heterogeneity exists in regional and provincial power structures. In hydropower-dominant southwestern China, the electricity carbon footprint factor remained below 0.40 kg·kW–1·h–1, whereas in coal-reliant northern and eastern regions, it exceeded 1.00 kg·kW–1·h–1, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “high in the north and east, low in the south and west.” From 2018 to 2022, these factors showed a general downward trend, reflecting the emission reduction benefits of increased clean energy generation. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 0.1 kg·kW–1·h–1 decrease in the electricity factor reduces the PCF of the full-scrap EAF route by approximately 50–70 kg·t–1, confirming the substantial impact of optimizing the power structure on the industry’s decarbonization potential. By systematically quantifying the relationship between electricity factors and steel PCFs, this study elucidates the spatial and temporal trends of China’s electricity carbon footprint factors. It further quantifies the influence of these factors across different steelmaking processes, confirming that localized factors are essential for improving the accuracy and regional comparability of PCF accounting. These findings provide empirical data and methodological references to support the low-carbon transformation of the steel industry, optimization of production capacity layout, and enhancement of regional energy planning.

       

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