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  • 天然氣全生命周期產量預測關鍵技術研究

    Research on key technologies for production forecasting of natural gas throughout its life cycle

    • 摘要: 準確預測天然氣井產量對開發決策優化具有重要意義。現有預測方法大多側重整體建模,難以適應天然氣井“增產-穩產-減產”的生命周期演變特征;且現有數據驅動模型大多忽略儲層滲流場隨時間演化的物理規律,難以準確反映物性的時序變化。本文從生命周期視角出發,提出氣井產量預測方法(FGPM)。首先,通過斷點檢測算法劃分氣井生命周期,結合產量相對波動率判別氣井生產階段;隨后,構建基于編碼-解碼結構的預測模型,針對生產階段進行特征匹配訓練,并集成為全生命周期模型;最后,從模型超參數優化和滲流規律融合兩方面展開模型優化。實驗證明:(1)全生命周期模型相較于單一周期模型預測精度更高。與TCN、LSTM、GRU等經典方法對比,FGPM的預測精度分別提升了42.10%、39.40%、36.16%。(2)面向FGPM設計的優化措施對模型性能提升起正向作用:(a)優化超參數后的模型,其MAPE、MAE和RMSE分別提升了9.9%、16.2%和19.4%;(b)融合滲流規律約束的FGPM,其MAPE僅為4.874479%,模型性能得到進一步提升。

       

      Abstract: Accurate prediction of natural gas well production is of great significance to optimize development decisions. Existing prediction methods mostly focus on overall modeling, which is difficult to adapt to the life cycle evolution of natural gas wells, which is characterized by “increasing production, stabilizing production, and decreasing production”; moreover, most of the existing data-driven models ignore the physical law of reservoir seepage field evolution over time, which is difficult to accurately reflect the temporal changes of physical properties. In this paper, a gas well production prediction method (FGPM) is proposed from the perspective of life cycle. Firstly, the life cycle of gas wells is divided by the breakpoint detection algorithm, and the relative fluctuation rate of production is combined to identify the production stage of gas wells; subsequently, a prediction model based on the coding-decoding structure is constructed, with feature matching training conducted for each production stage and integrated into the full-life-cycle model; finally, the model optimization is carried out from the optimization of the model hyper-parameters and the integration of seepage flow laws. The experiments proved that: (1) the prediction accuracy of the full life cycle model is higher compared with that of the single cycle model. Compared with the classical methods such as TCN, LSTM and GRU, the prediction accuracy of FGPM is improved by 42.10%, 39.40% and 36.16%, respectively. (2) Optimization measures for FGPM design play a positive role in model performance enhancement: (a) the model with optimized hyper-parameters has improved its MAPE, MAE and RMSE by 9.9%, 16.2% and 19.4%, respectively; (b) the FGPM incorporating the constraints of seepage law has a MAPE of only 4.874479%, and the model performance has been further improved.

       

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  • 啪啪啪视频